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Lottery math: stop refreshing the page.

Your odds at Chicago, New York, and London — and the smaller races that quietly accept everyone who shows up.

DP
Devon Park
Oct 2, 2026 · 4 min read
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The problem

Race finders default to surface-level signals — elevation totals, average temps, finisher counts. They're easy to scrape and easy to compare. They're also frequently misleading.

We started RaceScout because the gap between "flat course" and "flat for the second half" can be a 12-minute marathon. Same for "cool race day" vs "cool race day with a tailwind in the first 10K." The directory doesn't surface the difference. Field notes will.

A label that doesn't survive contact with the course is worse than no label at all.

What we found

This piece walks through the specific edge cases we've run into while indexing the marathons in our directory — the races whose published stats don't match what you'll experience on the day.

  • 01Net-downhill races whose final 5K rolls back up — your watch averages out, your legs do not.
  • 02Cool-temperature races whose start corral sits in direct sun for 45 minutes.
  • 03"Lottery" majors whose acceptance rate above qualifying time is effectively 100%.
32
Data points per race we now track, after years of finding ways the simple labels lied.

The takeaway

We're not against directories. We are one. We're against treating headline stats as if they're the whole picture — which is why every fit score on RaceScout breaks down by goal, course, weather, crowd, and travel, and why those breakdowns are visible before you commit.

If you spot something we're getting wrong, the feedback button in your settings goes directly to the editor. We read every note.

DP
About the writer
Devon Park
Editor and head of course analysis. Has run every World Major and roughly four hundred Tuesday-night track workouts.
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